Some statistical cautions

At the end of the day, the CMIP6 projections we offer are just that: projections. That means they inherently have a degree of uncertainty in them that needs to be accomodated, lest you accidentally make unsound decisions with the data.

You have to weigh averages across regions

The first thing to know is you have to weight your averages if you’re averaging across more than one geographic polygon.

You should probably compare running averages instead of points

The data is produced in ensembles